Posts filed under 'General'
Q: Why am I Still Staying Away from Investing in Russia?
I’ve written here a couple of times that Russia, now with the 4th largest reserves of any central bank in the world, is not to be ignored. However, I’ve also stated that until they clean up their political corruption issues, I’m staying away. First, Andrei Kozlov, one of their central bankers that was leading a fight against money laundering was murdered in an apparent contract killing, then journalist Anna Politkovksaya, one of the most outspoken critics of Russian President Putin, was murdered. And just this week, in another apparent contract killing, Alexander Plokhin, a manager of a state-owned Moscow bank, was gunned down. Everytime I think of entering the Russian markets, I receive another reminder to stay away.
October 11th, 2006
Q: What is the Most Diverse Place on Earth?
Occasionally I’ll just post a short blurb about nothing investment related when I see something outstanding. Noticed Brooklyn is now on board here at the Zen of Investing. Being in Asia I miss my East Coast roots - NYC, the BKYLYN, the ATL, and of course the 215 and my Philly cheesesteaks.
One of the best things about one of the greatest cities on earth is summed up by this one man’s project. For two years, photographer Danny Goldfield has set out to photograph a child from all 194 countries on this earth…without ever stepping foot outside of New York City! Watch this amazing video here. Simply amazing that this is most likely possible. So far he has photographed children from about 130 countries with 64 countries to go. If you live in NYC, find out what countries he has left on his list here and help this man finish this project.
October 6th, 2006
He observado que algunas visitantes aquí son de países de habla español. Pues tengo una pregunta. ¿Ustedes desean la información aquí traducida al Español? Ahora no tengo la habilidad para traducir todo, pero tal vez, si recibo bastantes peticiones, intentaré traducir los blogs mas solicitados de todos. Por favor, si esto interesa usted por favor nos deja un comentario abajo. Perdóneme para todos mis errores gramaticales en este párrafo corto!
Muchas gracias.
-J.S.
October 1st, 2006
September 28, 2006 -
Historically, August and September are very weak months in the stock market and rallies start in October into November and December. Then January has always been a very strong month performance wise as investors buy back shares they sold off in December for tax reasons. Right now, the U.S. markets are following some historic patterns and ignoring others. Trying to decipher them is a big web of entanglement.
I’ve been focusing most in the U.S. markets now even though I have very little money invested there because this is a mid-term Presidential election year in the United States, and the global stock market that affects all other stock markets the most is the U.S. market. This year, August and September have been fairly good months creating a sharply overbought U.S. stock market right now. From a technical charting standpoint, it certainly looks like a reversal is coming in October. However, the monkeywrench in the mix, and it is a big monkeywrench indeed, is the behind the scenes political- economic plays being made by the great wizard, the U.S. government, from now until November 7th.
Read more …
September 28th, 2006
September 27, 2006 -
The September 9th “Economist” magazine discussed the trials and tribulations of Jamie Olis, a former senior level tax planner at Dynergy, who was sentenced to 24 years in prison for, according to a Houston judge, contributing to the destruction of $100 million of Dynergy market capitalization. Olis caused this destruction, the judge stated, by releasing fraudulent information through Project Alpha, a gas trading and finance scheme that falsely pumped up Dynergy’s cash flow by USD $300 million. Furthermore, in rendering his decision, the judge relied on the testimony of a government witness, a statistics expert that claimed because markets are 100% efficient, Dynergy shares’ rise and downfall were directly attributable to Project Alpha’s lies and the deception of Jamie Olis. The only problem with this argument is that markets are nowhere near 100% efficient.
Read more …
September 27th, 2006
September 26, 2006 -
As I sit here this morning and watch the markets rise in the first two hours of trading, I must admit that although all this “feel-good” economic news, low inflation, high consumer confidence and low gas prices have been artificially manufactured by the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and various Bush administration offices like the OMB, I am still astounded at how naive and gullible the average investor can be at times. When the mid-term election cooking of the books ceases, and someone finally has the sense to start peeling away the layers of the economy like an onion, I guarantee you, what they see will make them cry.
As I’ve stated a hundred times here, short-term lies and artificial propping up of the economy can only fight an uphill battle for so long before the walls come tumbling down.
September 26th, 2006
Q: What Does a Review of Your Short-Term Trade Look Like So Far?
Today, I’m going to review a previous blog on September 14th that I titled “A Short Term Trade”, something “We Never Provide Information About”. In that blog, I wrote that I felt that the NYSE and the S&P 500 were due for sharp corrections and that the dollar looked as it would strengthen short-term even though long-term I think the U.S. markets are among the worst markets to be invested in and I think the dollar is one of the worst currencies to own. Since then, the dollar has weakened somewhat against the Euro and Yen and the U.S. stock markets have been shooting higher, perhaps providing evidence that short term trades are indeed something that we should “never provide information about” since that is not the strength of what we do here at SmartKnowledgeU. By short term trades, typically I mean six weeks or less, so even though we’re only two weeks into my prediction, if we don’t see this correction very soon (and I mean really soon), it’s probably unlikely to happen before the U.S. mid-term elections. Why is the date of the mid-term elections so important?
If you recall, I did temper my blog thoughts that day with the following statement: “the U.S. mid-term elections on Nov. 7th are creeping up. Traditionally incumbent governments manipulate the stock markets prior to these mid-term elections as strong economies favor incumbents staying in power,
Read more …
September 25th, 2006
September 21, 2006 -
Today I am just going to blog about a non-investment topic. When a coup happens in the country you’re in, I think I’m entitled to digress some. Furthermore, I’d like to set the record straight about the coup here as well. Several of my friends who were planning to travel here said that they heard it was too dangerous and risky to come to Thailand now. Just take a look at the photos above for a start. And they don’t even include the photos I’ve seen of children climbing on top of tanks. Does this look dangerous to you?
I must admit I am not surprised at the U.S.’s reaction to the military coup here in Thailand.” Today I read a BBC news headline that read “The United States has condemned Tuesday’s coup in Thailand and called for the restoration of democracy in its close ally as quickly as possible.” This very reaction is the reason why the U.S. is often viewed by the rest of the international community as the world’s bully. The U.S. has a history of supporting coups including the CIA-funded overthrow of a democratically elected government in Guatemala in 1953 to assist the economic aspirations of the United Fruit Company to most recently, an allegedly, though unsubstantiated, attempt to oust Venezuela’s leader Hugo Chavez.
Read more …
September 21st, 2006
September 15, 2006 -
Although you hear a lot about alternative energy being a good investment today, I think that it’s still a lot more hype than reality. Yes I’ve heard the arguments for alternative energy investments such as high oil prices now make the development of alternative energy sources more appealing on a cost-benefit scale. And I know that major oil companies are pumping billions of dollars into developing alternative energy. Still, considering that Exxon declared over $9 billion in profits, not revenues, in just one quarter in 2006, several billion earmarked for alternative energy development is not a lot.
And while I’m also aware that companies like Vesta Wind Systems has jumped by 40% in the last six to nine months, I still think that they are more of a trading strategy rather than investment strategy for the time being. As you know we always discuss investing here, not trading, meaning that we wish to hold almost all of our investments for at least six months or longer, not just a couple of weeks or months. Although alternative energy is real, and it does work there are many reasons to be skeptical before jumping on board.
Read more …
September 15th, 2006
September 14, 2006
This is the first time I have ever provided information on short-term trades because they are just too unpredictable and they take too much emotional effort to invest in. There are a lot of longer (not long but longer) term investments that can pay off quite handsomely so that’s what we normally stick to. Besides most short-term trades are based off of trying to read the psychology of the thundering sheep herd combined with technical charting patterns, an inexact science in itself.
This blog is kind of to appease the anti- “Zen of Investing” reader. The 99% of people that invest the same way, and that look for “get rich quick” investment schemes that are full of promise but empty on reality. Yeah I guess you could call this the anti “Zen of Investing” blog post.
Right now, the technical charts for the S&P 500 index and the NYSE index look very weak, meaning that a sharp break to the downside could be upon us, while the technical charts for the U.S. dollar and the Nasdaq index have just broken through their downward resistance lines and look strong. However these are all short-term indications, so you could possibly buy puts on the S&P 500 and the NYSE and go long the dollar and Nasdaq to try to pocket some short-term gains. To play the dollar both Rydex and Pro Funds offer strengthening dollar funds. Read more …
September 14th, 2006
September 12, 2006 -
Today, I’m taking a brief respite from my daily financial blubbering to just write a movie list, with the common theme that all of these movies dig down the rabbit hole. So these are not necessarily what I feel are the best movies of all time but the best movies that dig deep down the rabbit hole, as that is our common investment theme to building real, tangible wealth. Here are some great movies that everyone should catch at one point or another. If you see the common themes that run through this list and know of movies that we would love, please send us comments! We’re movie buffs here and want to know of other brilliant films, no matter the country of origin.
Amore Perros (Mexico) - This movie is so intelligent that you may need to watch it several times to catch all the allusions hidden within this film. There is a story told inside a story here. And it’s brilliant. Plus my friends in Mexico City told me that it captures life in Mexico City perfectly. The director, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, stated that he wanted the movie to be like a two hour, uninterrupted scream. He succeeded.
Whale Rider (New Zealand) - Don’t know what it was about this movie, maybe the charming little girl who played Pai. A simple story about Maori traditions that somehow resonates in the back of your mind long after you’ve finished watching it. One of those “good for the whole family” type of films but yet so much more than a weak Disney film.
Why We Fight (USA) - Fascinating documentary about the history of the industrial-military complex and an indictment upon the corporatization of war today. Seems appropos given that the U.S. provided cluster bombs to Israel to bomb Beirut, and now that the UN says a million unexploded cluster bombs now act like landmines in Beirut neighborhoods, the Bush administration has sent a delegation of American corporate executives to help “re-build” Lebanon. So from a corporate standpoint, the U.S. defense industry and mainstream corporation both profit. Sad that war has become just another business transaction.
Read more …
September 12th, 2006
A: Private Equity
Q: Want to learn how to earn 44% annual returns from a portion of your investment portfolio?
If you want to boost the performance of your portfolio, then consider private equity. From 1992-2002, the top 25% of U.S. private equity managers returned 44.5% annually while the second 25% of private equity managers only returned 14.3% (Source: Venture Economics, Morningstar Principia). The returns of top private equity firms have been so solid that even private institutional endowments like that of Yale University expects almost a third of their portfolio return to come from the 17.5 % it had invested in private equity (Source: Yale Endowment 2003 report).
The risks of private equity are often misunderstood. Even though a lot of wealthy people have been investing in private equity for many years, it is still an investment vehicle surrounded by confusion and misunderstanding.
Read more …
August 1st, 2006
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