Comments on: The Real US Federal Debt Has Ballooned to More than $100 Trillion

By: NOYB

NOYB — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 00:30:21 +0000

So just how does one go about measuring the level of government and Central Bank intervention into capital markets, on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis?

By: JS

JS — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 06:19:40 +0000

Hello Jeff,

I’m not familiar with the model Dr. Kris built but I truly don’t believe that any mathematical model can ever have great success because there is so much fraud inherent in all major capital markets today. For example, who in the world really believes in the validity of financial company balance sheets today? Other subjective indexes like the CCI can not compete with market intervention. The market will go in the direction the interventionists desire. So in the end, I firmly believe that technical and fundamental analysis will always fail without understanding gov’t and Central Bank interventions into capital markets.

Combine a knowledge of all three and market timing is very possible and very achievable.

Best,

By: Max

Max — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 02:26:47 +0000

Hi Jeff,

I don’t believe an economic phenomenon can be measured by quantative means, especially by hard math.

Market is functioned by each individaul who has different values and experiences that determine their judgements. And so many times, as we experience new info and think differently, we come to reach different conclusion, making different judgements.

This is the hard premise of the way an economy runs, I believe.

So many equations and formulas could help one to guess for a better probability of possibility, but none of it could forefell it.

That’s why, for so long till now, numerous math geniuses in Wall Street and etc have not been able to become an extraordinary investor.

Market forecast is about qualitative measurements, Jeff.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Sun, 31 May 2009 15:13:26 +0000

I’ve noticed that another Seeking Alpha writer, Dr. Kris from MIT has developed a really interesting item called the SMC analyzer….it puts together Modern Portfolio Theory and several market timing oscillators – seems she prefers the CCI – in regard to properly allocating assets. Looks like an innovative and new way to allocate, and puts ‘buy and hold’ to bed for good it seems. Are you familiar with it?

I’ve been involved in markets for many years and fund managers have never shown that they can effectively time the markets. Maybe they should take a look at it, since this seems to be hard math and there is no ‘human’ element to louse the results…. Your thoughts on it?

By: Alexander Bayden

Alexander Bayden — Wed, 27 May 2009 11:46:34 +0000

I do not doubt that the government will be unable to fund social security and Medicare, however I disagree with the idea that Medicare can be inflated away. Medical care will always cost a significant amount. Inflation just raises our Medicare liability.