Diversification, Cash, and AAA-rated Instruments with Exposure to MBS – Three Signs of an Incompetent Advisor
March 9. 2008 -
Diversification: The World’s Worst Investment Strategy
Diversification, cash and AAA-rated instruments with exposure to Mortgage Backed Securities – If you’re deep into all three, these are three definite signs that it is time to let your advisor go. Many “professional” advisors today argue that diversification is a reason to stay fully invested through bear markets. After all, if your advisor had diversified your portfolio into a bunch of housing and financial stocks that are all sitting on 40% to 70% losses right now, he or she would probably tell you that the bottom is certain to be near and that the worst performers of your portfolio this year will be the best performers of your portfolio in the years to come. Well, here’s a news flash. The time to sell out of these stocks was 9 months ago, and if you’re still holding on, the odds are that you will be hurt even more.
Here’s the reality. Diversification is the world’s worst investment strategy and has only served to erode a great deal of net worth and purchasing power for both Americans and Europeans alike. During the past 8 years, many of the major indexes in these regions are negative on an inflation adjusted basis. Thus, for 8 years of buying and holding, if your money was invested in funds pegged to the S&P 500 or the FTSE 100 (and 98% of money managers peg their portfolios to the major indexes of their home country), your net worth has been significantly eroded.
The Warren Buffet Argument is a Sham
Financial advisors often praise the benefits of diversification to advocate a buy and hold strategy so that they can continue to earn fees on depreciating portfolios during bear markets. To convince you that doing this very wrong thing is the right thing to do, they utilize the Warren Buffet argument. They argue, “Look at Warren Buffet. He’s a buy and hold guy and he’s one of the richest men in the world”. In a rational world, such an argument would be called a selective reconstruction of reality. What these same money managers fail to tell you is that Warren Buffet built his wealth by concentrating his exposure, not through diversification. At times, Mr. Buffet has held a mere five positions in his entire Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio. Mr. Buffet did not diversify, because with his level of expertise, there was no need to do so. Mr. Buffet can buy and hold because he is concentrated in positions that will continue to do well whether markets are bear or bull markets.
That’s what anyone that knows what they are doing will do. In bull markets, financial advisors that truly are on top of their game will concentrate to outperform the markets significantly. In this case, since a rising tide lifts all boats, those that choose to diversify can conceal their incompetence as they earn money simply through luck. However, in a bear market, incompetence is much more difficult to hide.
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