Archive for May, 2007
May 28, 2007 - On January 23rd, at the Underground Investor, I wrote this:
Steve Forbes, publisher of the noted Forbes wealth magazine, went on record at the Las Vegas Gold Show that oil prices would reach $35 a barrel in 2006. That certainly was a contrarian viewpoint at the time, and obviously, it never happened. Although I saw no less than 5 headlines in major financial publications at the beginning of this year that stated $40 oil was inevitable and some that even called for $30 oil as inevitable, I stated “I don’t think oil will go much below $50 even though it is descending right to the verge of $50 and many are stating that $40 oil is a given now.”
This wasn’t the only time I stated that oil was heading higher from January either even as investment newsletters and experts screamed at the time that oil was definitely heading to $40 a barrel and most likely $30 a barrel.
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May 28th, 2007
May 26, 2007 - I’m sure a bigger part of the discussion about these “pooled Asian reserves” not publicly discussed revolves around China’s continuing plans to diversify out of their huge dollar denominated reserves. All participating countries in this reserve pool must wonder how this can be achieved without greatly harming the value of their respective dollar denominated reserve pools.
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May 26th, 2007
May 25, 2007 - Recently it was reported that the finance ministers from Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and China among other Asian countries would meet in Kyoto to discuss pooling some of the region’s $2.7 trillion in foreign-denominated reserves to serve as a buffer against speculators driving down the value of their domestic currencies as happened during the 1997 financial crisis. Though this is the “official” reason being offered to the financial media, and one that has not been challenged by the financial press, I’m not buying it.
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May 25th, 2007
May 22, 2007 - In continuation of my last blog, today it was reported that Stiglitz criticized Congress for its stance on China tariffs.
“We are in a mutual hostage situation, and China may hold the better cards,” Stiglitz said.
The story stated that
if Congress were to pass measures cutting off Chinese exports to the U.S., China could quickly reduce these purchases. China could keep a high growth rate, but the U.S. “would have a very much of a problem financing our deficit,” Stiglitz said.
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May 23rd, 2007
May 22, 2007 - On September 25th of last year, I blogged about the close relationship of Goldman Sachs and the U.S. government and how it was more likely than not that Goldman Sachs dumping of 72.66% of the unleaded gas position in its commodities index right before the mid-term Congressional elections was politically motivated. The following week, the New York Times wrote the exact same article.
On March 13, 2007, I delivered my opinion here about the foolishness of the U.S. Congressional stance towards China
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May 22nd, 2007
16 May, 2007 - Here’s a story I’ve been meaning to write about but just haven’t had the time. The People’s Bank of China last month increased their Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) 50 basis points to 11% in an attempt to reduce inflationary measures. Although I don’t know if China actually enforces this RRR (in the U.S. the RRR is 10% but in reality, legislation has been weakened to such an extent in the U.S. over the past decade, that many banks maintain a true RRR of less than 1%), the move, even if symbolic, is important
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May 16th, 2007
16 May, 2007 -
Case in point. With my GM puts, although they were up at one point 35% (my target was a 50% gain), I ended up selling out at a 40% loss when I got stopped out (normally I’ll set my stop-losses on options anywhere from 25% to 40%). Had in not been for private equity firm Cerberus acquiring DaimlerChrysler, I believe I would have hit my 50% gain
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May 16th, 2007
May 8, 2007 - The Marvel June 25 Puts have provided a good lesson that can be applied to making money in purchasing stocks. Again, I just dabble in options every now and then so by no means do I consider myself an expert in options. However, I do know enough to make money from playing options Read more …
May 8th, 2007
8 May, 2007 - Today will be the day that will likely determine whether or not this play works out or not. Normally, as I’ve reiterated before, I don’t like holding options through earnings announcements, but since I made the decision to buy in last week, I decided to take a chance with this one. Read more …
May 8th, 2007
7 May, 2007- I decided to re-write my article about Marvel Puts this week before the market opens tomorrow because there is an important lesson in my reasons for buying the Marvel June 25 Puts last week even if this play doesn’t turn out to be successful. And though I normally don’t blog about options as I only utilize options to supplement income every now and then, I’m writing some more today because of the lesson this particular case has to impart about building wealth with stocks.
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May 7th, 2007
7 May 2007 - I just spent an hour writing this morning’s blog entry about why Marvel June 25 puts were a compelling play last week and why I decided to buy in at $0.40 a contract last week (by the way they were at this exact same price when the markets opened this morning in New York as after hours trading had caused the stock to open considerably higher). Read more …
May 7th, 2007
6 May, 2006 - As again, top financial stories in the U.S. are led by investors waiting for economic reports to gauge whether the markets will go higher or will head for a steep downturn, such chatter is really very foolish. Though it is undeniable that such reports influence markets everywhere in the world, the reality is that investors should not base their investment decisions upon them. Why?
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May 6th, 2007
3 May, 2007 - I came across a very interesting story yesterday that seemed to attract little attention among the mainstream media. This, out of Washington today:
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) – “The U.S. Treasury on Wednesday said it will end issues of three-year notes after reduced debt refunding auctions next week in response to strong tax receipts and an improving federal budget picture.”
This story is truly noteworthy in my humble estimation
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May 3rd, 2007
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