I agree with your IRA analogy. Good analogy. In fact, I don’t know if you read it, but in a previous blog entry I wrote that it was ridiculous that oil futures dipped on an announcement of a massive oil discovery four miles below the ocean’s surface in the Gulf of Mexico. They dipped significantly even though the ability to harvest these reserves may be at least a decade away if at all.

However, if you read my various blog entries on this subject, I stated that I think a combination of technology advances, environmental changes, and alternative energy advancements will be adequate to solve our global problem of reliance on oil as an energy supply. So even if peak oil’s calculations are correct, an advancement in alternative energy fuel cells could make this calculation irrelevant. The peak oil theory, has to a large degree, relied on a growing demand and a finite amount of reserves without adequately accounting for all the moving parts that could possibly increase reserves or decrease demand (by decreasing demand I mean decreasing reliance on oil by developing alternative energy sources to meet the increasing global demand for energy). So in the end, I believe there are way to many moving parts to make peak oil a valuable theory.

As you also stated, John, it is likely new forms of energy will replace some of the world’s need for oil. The reasons why new forms of energy haven’t already been widely adopted is much too complex a subject to adequately address here, but when push comes to shove, it eventually will happen despite the actions or desires of Big Oil.

To use an analogy, it’s like saying a tornado will inevitably destroy a city because three of the five major weather patterns are in place that predict a tornado touchdown. But even when the tornado touches down, its path could still turn and completely miss your city. Too many moving parts to know for sure.

Alberta Energy Research Institute projects tar sand production increasing to 3mbpd over ten years – big deal.

I did not believe in Y2K, but history is full of crises.

Matt Simmon’s data reform would answer all these questions. I also believe we will move on to new forms of energy after we finally understand the difference between peaking and “running out” and shale oil vs. light sweet conventional crude.

Good luck.