Archive for October, 2006

Steve Wynn’s Elbow and a $91 Million Blunder

October 18, 2006 -

la-reve.gifSteve Wynn, the Las Vegas billionaire casino mogul, recently agreed to sell a 1932 Picasso painting “La Reve” to Connecticut hedge fund billionare Steven Cohen for USD $139 million, a $91 million profit in just 9 years of holding the painting. That is until he was showing off the painting in his office to a bunch of friends, and in an animated gesture, wiped out a $91 million gain when his elbow plowed through the painting. tearing a couple of three inch long gashes.

However, the bigger point to take away from this story is that before Wynn’s blunder, he had found a buyer willing to pay $139 million for the purchase of a single painting. It is quite evident that the fine art market is still alive and healthy. In India, Tyeb Mehta paintings that sold for a mere $100,000 four years ago are now selling for more than $1.5MM. I don’t know where else you can find these types of returns. Read the full story here from a guest that was present in Wynn’s office when his elbow went crashing through the Picasso.

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2009 Forecast: The U.S. Dollar
Hedge Funds Shutting Down | Managers Closing Door
Hedge Fund Stuff
Read more on U.S. Dollar (USD), Resorts & Casinos, The Impact of Hedge Funds at Wikinvest

Add comment October 18th, 2006

Consider a Position in Inverse Funds

October 18, 2006 - As I’ve mentioned many times before, I expect to see a significant correction coming soon in the U.S. markets. Were it not for the imminent mid-term elections on Nov. 7th, I would call for strong and steep corrections to start within the next couple of weeks. However, the looming presence of the mid-term elections clouds the entire picture. So what’s the solution?

Of course you can consider puts on the S&P 500 and DJIA, but the only problem with puts is that if you miss time your entry by just one or two days, you could be hurt badly. However, due to the wildcard of the mid-term U.S. elections, I believe that inverse funds are the better call. Inverse funds are not nearly as volatile as options yet provide downside protection. Two companies that offer inverse funds

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Quick Technical Analysis: S&P 500
Dow Jones 10 Year Chart - December 19, 2008
S&P 500 Index Approaching Breakout Level
Hold on Tight! Market Turns Sour
Read more on S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average at Wikinvest

2 comments October 18th, 2006

The Changing Global Economy will Lessen the Importance of the U.S. Stock Markets

October 17, 2006 -

evolution.gifI’ve said many times on previous blog posts that the reasons I discuss the U.S. markets so often is that the U.S. markets drive all other markets around the world. It is quite common to see a record day on the S&P 500 followed by stellar days on the LSE and Nikkei indexes the following day and vice versa. Just look at recent parallel movements. The U.S. Dow hits all –time highs (well not really but if you don’t adjust for inflation, it has), then the Sensex in India last Friday closed 65 points higher than its earlier record high of 12,671.11. This past Monday, in early morning trading, the Nikkei and Topix indexes opened higher in Japan along with the Kospi in South Korea and the S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney.

However there are so many factors today that have made emerging and other developed markets less dependent on the U.S. economy.

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Add comment October 17th, 2006

Ben Bernanke is Wrong When He Says that Emerging Economies Will Rescue the U.S. Economy

October 16, 2006 -

bernanke.gifU.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently stated that the enormous U.S. trade deficit that the U.S. has incurred over the years is nothing to worry about because it merely reflects global savings patterns. He states that emerging economies have a huge glut of savings and thus the U.S. necessarily must have a great debt to balance out the rest of the world’s savings. The logic is, of course, that as the emerging market’s enormous savings glut unwinds, then the U.S. deficit will be reduced significantly. This explanation has a number of gaping holes in it wide enough to drive a Mack truck through.

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Fed Out of Ammo; Dollar is Toast
The Fed Is - Finally - Starting to Create Money From Thin Air
Read more on Federal Reserve, Emerging Markets at Wikinvest

1 comment October 16th, 2006

Investment Opportunities in Africa

October 14, 2006 - When you look at satellite images of Africa at night, it is truly amazing. It’s beautiful yet eerie at the same time. The entire continent, with the exception of the coasts of Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco, and the nations of Egypt and South Africa, is just about dark. Especially in contrast to the coalition of neighboring European countries to their immediate north. In fact, due to the absence of city lights, Africa must be one of the best places in the world to stargaze. It is an indictment of how much the rest of the world has ignored Africa’s developmental needs for….well, forever. That is until now.

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Add comment October 14th, 2006

A: The Pursuit of Happyness

Q: What Investment Film Do You Recommend?

ph.gifAs the weekend is approaching, I thought I would keep today’s entry very light. Saw a trailer today for what looks like an amazing film about a man, Chris Gardner, who traveled a textured and emotionally challenging journey from the depths of homelessness in the early 1980’s and sleeping in public subway station bathrooms in San Francisco with his son, to eventually founding his own institutional brokerage firm, Gardner, Rich & Co., and becoming a multi-millionaire. Will Smith, you’ve come a long way from the days of the Fresh Prince. Watch the trailer for the upcoming film The Pursuit of Happyness here.

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Zecco Online Discount Stock Brokerage Review
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Read more on Investment Brokerage - National at Wikinvest

Add comment October 13th, 2006

How has Prince Bandar bin Sultan Affected Oil Prices in Past Years?

October 12, 2006 -

binSultan.jpgAs an afterthought on my blog entitled “State of Denial”, I thought about the accusation author Bob Woodward made that the Bush Administration, prior to the 2004 Presidential elections, asked then Saudi Ambassador to the U.S., Prince Bandar bin Sultan, to keep oil prices down (watch the video here). Again, given that Bob Woodward is a respected journalist who broke the infamous Watergate scandal, and whose first book, Bush at War, was just as heavily praised by the current administration as his current one is being denounced, one can hardly accuse Woodward of any strong political bias. In fact, earlier I blogged about how Goldman Sachs was most likely also asked, through former Goldman CEO and now current U.S. Secretary of Treasury, Hank Paulson, to help out

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Jim Rogers' Outlook for 2009
Oil Will Surge Again… Here’s 7 Ways To Profit
Energy Stocks Will Roar Back - But Not Soon
Read more on Oil Prices, Goldman Sachs Group at Wikinvest

1 comment October 12th, 2006

A: Too Many Former KGB/ Mafia Business Connections

Q: Why am I Still Staying Away from Investing in Russia?

godfather.gifI’ve written here a couple of times that Russia, now with the 4th largest reserves of any central bank in the world, is not to be ignored. However, I’ve also stated that until they clean up their political corruption issues, I’m staying away. First, Andrei Kozlov, one of their central bankers that was leading a fight against money laundering was murdered in an apparent contract killing, then journalist Anna Politkovksaya, one of the most outspoken critics of Russian President Putin, was murdered. And just this week, in another apparent contract killing, Alexander Plokhin, a manager of a state-owned Moscow bank, was gunned down. Everytime I think of entering the Russian markets, I receive another reminder to stay away.

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"Deflation has become inevitable"
Russia Moves to Expand It’s Control of Oil Assets
Why Aren't They Interviewing This Guy?
Read more on Investing in Russia, Banking at Wikinvest

Add comment October 11th, 2006

A: It Helps Me Write About Topics People Want to Read About

Q: Why Do I Ask for Comments?

world.gifTo keep a pulse on investment topics that people would like to read, I glance at the analytics for my website quit often. I noticed that a reader in Namibia was reading my blog frequently and then disappeared. I noticed this week that new readers from Uruguay, Argentina, Turkey and Australia have joined. However, without feedback from you, the reader, I don’t know what information someone from the UAE is seeking versus someone in Brazil. So to that end, I would welcome comments and suggestions on any blog post via the comment boxes (and if you speak Spanish, you can post in Spanish as well as I can understand Spanish fairly well).

I recently started a discussion board on another site (not mine) about water stocks, and even though it’s been up for several days, only one person has posted a comment. But I guess that’s what contrarian investing and digging below the surface to find superior investment opportunities is all about. My topics are just not going to appeal to the wide masses liike a discussion about commonly-held stocks like IBM, Apple, or Sony would. But like I said, the Zen of Investing is not about discussing stories already analyzed to death in the mainstream media. I try to bring you stories that you won’t hear about in Reuters, the BBC, the Wall Street Journal or the London Times. So to that end, again, please feel free to post suggestions in the comment boxes! Thanks!

More on this topic (What's this?)
Next Stop for the US Dollar: Argentina
Australia plans electric vehicle network
Into the Economic Abyss
Capturing Oz?
Read more on Investing in Australia, Investing in Uruguay, Investing in Argentina at Wikinvest

Add comment October 11th, 2006

Shock and Awe Awaits Global Markets

October 10, 2006 -

shock.gifOn September 13th, I wrote this entry “Gold has increased volatility these days because of all the morons that run hedge funds that pump and dump commodities such as gold. Recently I’ve already read of numerous hedge funds that were forced to close due to millions of dollars they have lost for investors based on their speculative bets. Prior to the Gold ETF coming into existence just a couple of years ago in the U.S., it was difficult for hedge funds to speculate on gold in huge positions. Unfortunately, now it is not. And unfortunately, gold, already a traditionally volatile asset, has become more volatile because of this.”

Just this week, Jon Nadler, a gold analyst at Kitco.com, confirmed my beliefs

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The Five Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today
How to Invest in Physical Gold in a Balanced Portfolio
Is Gold Finally Breaking Out?
Read more on Investing In Gold, The Impact of Hedge Funds at Wikinvest

2 comments October 10th, 2006

Looking a Little Bit Smarter

October 10, 2006

On September 25th, I wrote a blog titled, “I’m Not Looking So Smart…Yet”. I added the “Yet” because I knew that both the events I was predicting despite media reports much to the contrary, would happen. I just wasn’t sure they would happen in the six weeks I had predicted them to happen (which would give me to the end of October given that I predicted these events on Septemeber 14). The two events were a Read more …

Add comment October 10th, 2006

Don’t Believe the Hype: Avoid Chineses Banks Stocks and IPOs

October 9, 2006 -

china-bank.gifWhile I still like certain individual Chinese stocks, I don’t particularly like the banking industry in China. This week, there has been enormous hype surrounding the largest IPO in history planned on October 27th by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which plans to raise USD $22 billion. To gain some perspective on the size of this IPO, Mastercard’s May 25th IPO, which raised USD $2.58 billion, was the largest IPO in the U.S. stock markets in two years. The mania surrounding Chinese IPO’s is evident. Though both the shares of China Construction Bank and China Commercial Bank skyrocketed by 45% and 25% respectively after their IPOs within the past year, this isn’t enough to attract me into these waters. Why?

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1 comment October 9th, 2006

A SmartKnowledgeU™ Reader’s List

October 8, 2006 -

agents.gifIn a previous blog, we mentioned that an abundance of perspective is a critical key to building significant amounts of wealth. Why? Because perspective is the only tool that allows you to sort out reality from the masses of junk contained in information that is circulated by the mass media today. In continuation of that theme, I have decided to provide a Down the Rabbit Hole reader’s list that contains many of the books that have widened my historical perspective and that were critical in the development of strategies that have exponentially increased my investment success. They are not traditional investment books with titles like “The Warren Buffet Way” and “How to Build a Seven Figure Portfolio”, so they may surprise you.

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1 comment October 8th, 2006

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