Archive for September 16th, 2006

Has the Commodities Bubble Burst? No, No, No!

September 16, 2006 -

no.gifEverywhere in the media, you have pundits saying that the commodities Bull Run is over - including even chief global economists of major investment firms like Steven Roach of Morgan Stanley. They’re all wrong. This is a case of everyone panicking from sharp corrections that no doubt have caused millions of people world wide some mental anguish and hand wringing. But not me. I’ve dug deep enough down into the rabbit hole to know that gold will rise much much higher in the future. In fact if you go back and read my earlier blogs and ezines (for my ezine subscribers), you’ll see that when gold was at over $625 an ounce I said that gold was heading lower than $600 to test its June lows of $570 and possibly head lower. And I still think that we haven’t seen the end of the correction in gold. Yes, oil has slipped to below $60 a barrel but again, this doesn’t mean that oil is done either.

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More on this topic (What's this?)
Expert Commodity Picks for 2009: Jim Rogers and Marc Faber
The Five Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today
My Yearly Commodity Returns Since 2005
Read more on Commodities, Investing In Gold at Wikinvest

Add comment September 16th, 2006

Why do people believe one of the dumbest, most flawed and deceptive measures of economic conditions in making their investment decisions?

September 16, 2006 -

peoplesheep.gifPeople continually employ flawed and deceptive statistics when making their investment decisions. In the short term, the performance of the U.S. stock market has enormous influence on all other major stock markets. One of the most closely watched indexes to gauge U.S. economic conditions is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is viewed as a measure of core inflation in the U.S. economy. However, the CPI excludes food and energy prices because the government claims, these sectors have a history of being extremely volatile so they feel that their inclusion would skew real inflation rates. This is the dumbest, most deceptive piece of junk that I’ve ever heard. Skew them? No, their inclusion would just tell you what real inflation is.

When crude oil remains above $60 a barrel for months on end, and citizens necessarily have to spend USD $50-80 a week on gas alone, this affects the amount of money they can save. When higher oil prices cause higher transportation prices and thus higher food prices, then every citizen necessarily spends more money on food and again, is able to save less money.

To me, the CPI represent true inflation rates for all citizens that don’t have to eat and don’t use heat and don’t drive a car, but it certainly doesn’t represent true inflation or anything close to it. As I mentioned in a previous blog, inflation simply put is the loss of purchasing power. Higher energy and food prices cause a significant loss of purchasing power so to not include the increased prices in these sectors in the major quoted index for core inflation is just flat out deceptive. When energy prices are high, the CPI inflation index can understate true inflation by 100% to 200%.

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More on this topic (What's this?)
The New Doom-and-Gloomers
No Cause for Optimism
The Coming Depression
Read more on U.S. Economic Cycles, Inflation, Consumer Price Index - CPI at Wikinvest

2 comments September 16th, 2006


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