The Underground Investor™ Database Archives

Learn how to make a fortune in the stock market here. Our goal is to be the only website that consistently provides you, the reader, with the REAL stories behind the stories in the investment world today. In fact, our opinions about the riskiness of U.S. bonds, the unusual price behavior in unleaded gas and about potentially self-defeating U.S. Congressional attitudes towards Chinese tariffs appeared here first, at the Underground Investor™, weeks and sometimes many months before the same stories eventually appeared anywhere else, including the New York Times and the Economist. As we are still in the process of archiving all our articles and adding new ones, for your only source of REAL financial and investment news, be sure to visit us frequently!

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Most Read Posts (52 articles) - Discover which articles Underground Investor™ readers are most interested in. See the full database by clicking the link above.

Sept. 27, 2007 - 101 Reasons Why Managing Your Money is the Quickest Way to Build Wealth
Sept. 25, 2007 - 10 Surefire Ways to Make an Investment Fortune
Sept. 15, 2007 - Why the U.S. Feds 0.50% Rate Cut Won’t Save the Markets
Sept. 15, 2007 - U.S. Interest Rate Cut to Have Little Long-Term Positive Effect
Aug. 20, 2007 - How Much Does the Gov’t Really Manipulate Markets
Aug. 9, 2007 - More Gov’t Foolishness (or Lies) Again: Markets are Sound…NOT!
Aug. 9, 2007 - Chinese Tariffs and the Nuclear Option
Jul. 24, 2007 - How to Invest Like the World’s Greatest Investors
Jun. 17, 2007 - Get Out of Dollar-Denominated Bonds While You Still Can!
May 1, 2007 - Uranium Stocks are Finally Getting the Attention They Deserve
Apr. 23, 2007 - The Emperor’s New Clothes Abound in the Investment Industry. Don’t Get Cheated by Your Advisor
Apr. 20, 2007 - Use Intelligent Strategies to Push Risk Back onto Investment Firms
Apr. 19, 2007 - In Risky Markets, Follow the Behavior of the Ultra-Rich, Not the Rich
Apr. 12, 2007 - The Secret to Investing

Gold (28 articles) - Use traditional rules to invest in gold stocks and you’ll lose money hand over fist with this asset class. Learn more about one of the most important components of every portfolio for future years to come. See the full database by clicking the above link.

Nov. 4, 2007 - Is Hyperinflation Coming to the U.S.? It’s Time to Stock Up on Gold.
Nov. 4. 2007 - Gold is the Best Investment Today, History Tells Us So.
Nov. 2, 3007 - Gold Expensive at $791/oz.? Not by a Longshot
Jun. 5, 2007 - Learn How NOT to Invest in Gold
Mar. 30, 2007 - Navigate the Minefields of the Investment Information Highway
Mar. 7, 2007 - This Bounce in Gold Markets Merits a Cautious Approach
Mar. 6, 2007 - Gold Stocks Correction - What it Means?
Feb. 28, 2007 - How to Profit from a Weakening Market, Gold Stocks, & More, Part II
Feb. 28, 2007 - Buying Opportunity in Gold Stocks
Feb. 28, 2007 - How to Profit from a Weakening Market, Gold Stocks, & More, Part I
Feb. 23, 2007 - Uncover the Ignored Asset Classes
Feb. 12, 2007 - How Do I Know that Institutional Money is Still Not on Board with Gold?
Jan. 25, 2007 - If You Don’t Own Gold Stocks, You Need To
Jan. 23, 2007 - Building Wealth Requires More than Just Contrarian Investing
Jan. 14, 2007 - Use the Long Tail of Investing to Accurately Predict the Price of Gold
Jan. 11, 2007 - The REAL DEAL about Gold and Energy
Dec. 13, 2007 - Commodities and Asians: Apparently We All Look Alike
Nov. 6, 2006 - Sometimes Silence is Golden
Oct. 10, 2006 - Shock and Awe Awaits Global Markets
Oct. 4, 2006 - Is Gold’s Correction Over Yet?
Oct. 2, 2006 - Fiat Currency Concerns Give Rise to a Gold & Silver Backed Currency System
Oct. 1, 2006 - The Gold Timeline - A History of Gold Prices
Sept. 16, 2006 - Has the Commodities Bubble Burst? No, No, No!
Sept. 13, 2006 - Sell the Rumor, Buy the News
Sept. 11, 2006 - Gold’s Speculative Stigma is Unwarranted
Sept. 3, 2006 - Gold’s Glitter is Genuine
Aug. 14, 2006- Knowing Your History is More Important to Creating Wealth than Fundamental Analysis

The Incredible Shrinking Dollar (14 articles) – Foolish investors’ eyes lit up as New Century Financial dropped from $30 to $20 a share during the recent subprime mortgage fiasco. Their hearts thumped with excitement as shares dropped from $20 to $10 and they doubled down. When shares dropped to $5 they thought it had to be the bottom and put their last remaining money into New Century. A month later, they lost everything. There is similar optimism surrounding the dollar today from self-declared currency experts. Discover why the dollar is much more likely to go the way of New Century than experience a comeback like Muhammad Ali’s Rumble in the Jungle.

Sept. 19, 2007 - Signs of a Peak Investment Crisis Keep Coming
June 18, 2007 - Alan Greenspan’s Call of Checkmate on China is Premature
June 17, 2007 - PIMCO’s Bill Gross and the Economist Agree with SmartKnowledgeU 6 Months After the Fact!
May 28, 2007 - The Politics of Higher Oil Prices
May 26, 2007 - Asian Countries Pooling Reserves to Protect Themselves from the Incredible Shrinking Dollar, Part II
May 25, 2007 - Asian Countries Pooling Reserves, Part I
May 3, 2007 - The Death of the 3-Year Treasury Note
Apr. 1, 2007 - The Next Cold War Will be an Economic One
Jan. 25, 2007 - Dollar-Denominated Bonds Faltering
Jan. 9, 2007 - Use the Longtail of Investing to Accurately Predict Dollar Behavior
Jan 7, 2007 - 10 Reasons Why Dollar-Denominate Bonds Aren’t Safe
Dec. 21, 2006 - Iran Presents More Trouble for the U.S. Dollar
Dec. 7, 2006 - The U.S. has Perfected the Incredible Shrinking Dollar

Free SmartKnowledgeU™ Stock Picks (22 articles) - While our top-shelf stock picks and ideas that have since returned 100% to 200% returns are reserved for our members only, here read articles about some mid-shelf stock picks and ideas that have already returned 30% returns in less than a year. Access the full database by clicking the link above.

Jun. 4, 2007 - To Prove the Effectiveness of Our SmartKnowledgeUInvestment System, Even Our Weakest Picks that We’ve Given Away for FREE Have Soared
Apr. 29, 2007 - After BAIDU, Possibly Focus Media
Apr. 2, 2007 - Profit, Don’t Lose From Market Corrections
Apr. 2, 2007 - Global Warming Presents Easy 30% Gains for Underground Investor Readers
Mar. 13, 2007 - Beware the Perpetual Bulls, Part II
Feb. 18, 2007 - Banking Sector FY 2008 - Positive for Japan & India, Negative for China
Jan. 4, 2007 - Chinese Technology Companies to Watch in 2007
Dec. 19, 2007 - MSFT and Internet Protocol Version 6
Dec. 12, 2006 - It’s Time to Keep a Close Eye on Indian Stocks ICICI & HDFC
Dec. 7, 2006 - The Ocean Becomes a New Growth Point in the World Economy
Oct. 30, 2006 - What’s the Safest Place to Invest in the Oil Industry Now?
Oct. 30, 2006 - You’ll Find Ignored Investment Opportunities in the DRC & Libya
Oct. 23, 2006 - Indian Banks Anyone? Four Letters: HDFC
Oct. 9, 2006 - Don’t Believe the Hype - Avoid Chinese Bank Stocks


The Peak Investment Crisis (12 articles) - Bubbling underneath the surface, there lies a peak investment crisis. When it hits, savvy investors will build a fortune. Unfortunately, most investors will be blindsided and lose great fortunes instead. Access the entire database by clicking on the above link.

Nov. 4, 2007 - Is Hyperinflation Coming to the U.S.? It’s Time to Stock Up on Gold.
Nov. 4. 2007 - Gold is the Best Investment Today, Part II
Oct. 15, 2007 - Our New Forum on Facebook: Crisis Investing
Oct. 9, 2007 - Beware the Turbulence that Lies Beneath the Surface, Part I
Sept. 20, 2007 -The Signs of a Peak Investment Crisis Keep Coming
Sept. 19, 2007 -Why the U.S. Fed’s 0.50% Rate Cut Won’t Save the Markets
Aug. 9, 2007 - More Gov’t Foolishness Again
Jun. 29, 2007 - Don’t Let the Strength of the U.S. Markets in the First Half of 2007 Fool You
Mar. 11, 2007 - It’s the Difference Between Chasing & Building Wealth
Mar. 6, 2007 - What this Correction Means for Gold Stocks
Feb. 28, 2007 - How to Profit From a Weakening Market & Gold Stocks
Sept. 9, 2006 - The Peak Investment Crisis
Aug. 11, 2006 - How to Protect Your Portfolio During Turbulent Markets

A New Investment Paradigm for the 21st Century (10 articles)– Fundamental and Value investing may take years of patience to pay off (i.e. Apple Computers was a huge value stock at $13 a share and took more than four years of waiting to pay off huge), Growth investing often leads to chasing hot sectors that correct rapidly. Discover why changing conditions in today’s global market has created a new investment paradigm that is hands down the best way to invest today. Click the link above to see all articles in this category.
Jul. 24, 2007 - How to Invest Like the World’s Greatest Investors
Feb. 25, 2007 - Frontrunning Can Make You a Fortune
Jan. 30, 2007 - The New Paradigm of Successful Investment Strategies
Jan. 21, 2007 - 10 Reasons the Longtail of Investing is the Only Way to Build Wealth
Jan. 16, 2007 - Use the Longtail of Investing to Predict Major Market Events with High Accuracy
Jan. 9, 2007 - Accurately Predict U.S. Dollar Behavior
Sept. 1, 2006 - What Mark Cuban Failed to Realize About Investing

The Biggest Investment Myths (59 articles) – All investment professionals, from investment firms to financial consultants to the financial journal purposely spread tales of lies and deception. Jim Cramer, an investment professional that amassed a fortune as a hedge fund manager, recently stated that the last thing he ever wanted to do is to tell the truth. Find out why deception is part of the game in the investment industry. Click the link above to access the full database.

Oct. 25, 2007 - New Home Sales Went Up. So What?
Oct. 15, 2007 - Beware the Turbulence that Lies Beneath the Surface, II
May 6, 2007 - Economic Reports Drive Short-Term Behavior, but Hardly Represent the Truth
Mar. 21, 2007 - The Short-Term May be Rosy, but Beware the Financial Crisis that is Building Steam
Mar. 4, 2007 - Foreign Markets aren’t as Risky as the Pundits Say
Feb. 23, 3007 - Evolve Your Investment Strategies with Evolving Technology
Feb. 6, 2007 - My Problem with Investment Newsletters (except ours, of course!)
Feb. 4, 2007 - 10 Questions to Help You Find a Superior Financial Consultant
Jan. 30, 2007 - A New Paradigm of Successful Investment Strategies
Jan. 25, 2007 - Despite Evidence to the Contrary, Millions of Investors Will Believe Whatever they Want to Believe
Jan. 7, 2007 - 10 Reasons Why Dollar Denominated Bonds Aren’t as Safe as You Think
Jan. 5, 2007 - How Understanding MMA Champions will Make You a Better Investor
Dec. 18, 2006 - The True Determinants of Wealth Have Nothing to do with Asset Allocation
Nov. 12, 2006 - The Greatest Investment Myth Exposed: Why Modern Portfolio Theory WILL NEVER Make You Rich.

Wealth Literacy (74 articles) – Wealth Literacy is the new Financial Literacy. Financial Literacy may teach you to be fiscally responsible but you can still be financially literate and remain poor. Wealth Literacy fills in all the holes of Financial Literacy and teaches you how to build wealth today.

Oct. 15, 2007 - Our New Facebook Investment Group - Crisis Investing
Oct. 9, 2007 - Beware the Turbulence that Lies Beneath the Surface, I
Apr. 23, 2007 - Beware the Emperor’s New Clothes -Don’t Get Cheated by Your Adviser
Apr. 20, 2007 - Intelligent Investment Strategies Push Risk Off of You & Back onto Investment Firms
Apr. 19, 2007 - In Risky Markets, Follow the Behavior of the Ultra-Rich, Not the Rich
Apr. 17, 2007 - Why Wealth Literacy is More Important than Financial Literacy, Part II
Apr. 15, 2007 - Why Wealth Literacy is More Important than Financial Literacy, Part I
Apr. 13, 2007 - Pop Investing is All the Rage, but it’s a Loser’s Game
Apr. 12, 2007 - The Secret to Investing in 3 Easy Rules
Apr. 10, 2007 - Build Wealth by Answering These 5 Questions
Mar. 30, 2007 - How to Navigate the Minefields of the Investment Information Highway
Mar. 12, 2007 - The Short-Term May be Rosy, But Beware the Financial Crisis that is Building Steam
Mar. 11, 2007 - The Difference Between Chasing Wealth and Building Wealth
Feb 23, 2007 - Uncover the Ignored Asset Classes
Feb. 21, 2007 - Why Traditional Education Stifles Your Ability to Build Wealth
Feb. 15, 2007 - 7 Habits of Highly Effective Investors
Feb. 8, 2007 - 10 Reasons Why a Professional Athlete’s Best Friend Needs to be his Financial Adviser

Politics and Stocks (27 articles) - Think you don’t need to understand politics to be a good investor? Think again. If you don’t understand politics, you’ll never fully understand the most likely future direction of global stock markets, oil, gold, and currency markets. Click the above link to see the full database of articles.
Apr. 11, 2007 - Building Great Wealth in Stocks Requires Understanding Politics
Apr. 1, 2007 - The Next Cold War will be an Economic One
Apr. 1, 2007 - Possible U.S. Military Intervention in Iran
Mar. 13, 2007 - To Err on the Subject of Chinese Tariffs May Expedite a Shakespearean Tragedy
Dec. 17, 2007 - Do Free Markets and Free Trade Exist?

Oil (13 articles) – Think oil prices are controlled by supply and demand, futures traders, or Peak Oil Theory? Think again. Discover the true determinants of oil price behavior.

May 28, 2007 - The Politics of Higher Oil Prices
Nov. 26, 2006 - Does the end of Mid-Term Elections Mean Higher Gas Prices Again?
Nov. 8, 2006 - The Peak Oil Theory was Created by - You Guessed it - Big Oil!
Oct. 30, 2006 - The Safest Place to Invest in the Oil Industry Now? - Oil Refiners, Pipeline Manufacturers, Deep Sea Platform & Drilling Manufacturers, and 4D Imaging Companies
Oct. 30, 2006 - You’ll Find Ignored Investment Opportunities in the DRC and Libya
Oct. 12, 2006 - How Has Prince Bandar bin Sultan Affected Oil Prices in Years Past?

Uranium (2 articles)– The bulk of this information is contained within our members only area, but you’ll find an article or two here.

May 1, 2007 - Uranium Stocks are Finally Getting Some Attention. Better Late than Never.

Africa (4 articles) - For the more daring investor willing to place small bets for HUGE returns, Africa awaits.

Canada (3 articles) – Articles about Canada and the Canadian stock market and hands down some of the best opportunities in ANY global stock market.

China (19 articles) – Articles about Chinese stocks and the Chinese stock market.

India (3 articles) – Articles about Indian stocks and the Indian stock market.

Japan (3 articles) - Articles about the Japanese economy and stock market.

Russia (1 articles) - Articles about the Russian economy and stock market

United States (23 articles) - Articles about U.S. stocks and the American stock market.

Vietnam (1 article) - Articles about Vietnam and the explosive yet unregulated Vietnamese market.

Investment Psychology (20 articles) – One of the most important but yet most overlooked and ignored aspects of investing is psychology. Discover how an improper mindset can be the difference between huge losses and huge gains in your portfolio.

Feb. 7, 2007 - Investors Should Apply the Rule of Shopping 101 to Buying Stocks
Jan. 3, 2007 - Will the 2006 Year End Rally Continue into 2007?
Dec. 21, 2006 - Perception Can Overrule Reality in Driving Behavior but Reality Will Overrule Perceptions in Driving Outcome
Nov. 30, 2006 - The Recency Effect Hurts Investment Decisions
Nov. 2, 2006- Canadian PM Stephen Harper & Hungarian PM Ferenc Gyurcsany - the More Things Change the More They Stay the Same
Nov. 2, 2006 - Irrational, Not Rational, Behavior Often Drives Markets
Oct. 24, 2006 - The Financial Media are Like Bad Weatherman
Oct. 8, 2006 - The SmartKnowledgeU Reader’s List
Oct. 4, 2006 - Hungarian PM Ferenc Gyurcsany: We LIED Morning, Noon, & Night!
Sept. 26, 2007 - Move Over Harry Potter! The Deceptive Wizardry of Fund Managers
Sept. 17, 2006 - When it Comes to Investing, You Get What You Pay For
Sept. 16, 2006 - Why Do People Believe One of the Dumbest, Most Flawed & Deceptive Measures of Economic Conditions?
Sept. 13, 2006 - Why Book Smarts Won’t Help You Build Wealth
Sept. 10, 2006 - Investment Psychology 101
Aug. 24, 2006 - To Become Wealthy, Abandon Widespread Beliefs About Investing
Aug. 18, 2006 - Following Mainstream Media Will Lead You Down a Disastrous Investment Road
Aug. 3, 2006 - Following Short-Term Fluctuations Will Create Poor Investment Decisions

Options (9 articles) - We don’t discuss options much here but occasionally, if there is a compelling play, we’ll write an article or two.

The Zen of Investing (41 posts) - Read articles from our resident martial arts expert regarding how understanding principles of martial arts can make you a much better investor. A combination of “The Art of War” and “The Art of Investing” if you will.

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1 comment May 5th, 2008

Why Warren Buffet Has Never Been More Wrong

May 5, 2008

Just a couple of days ago, the financial media rejoiced over a prediction made by the Omaha oracle, Warren Buffet that “The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over,” disseminating this declaration across the world in the hopes that it could continue to fuel what will go down as one of the most foolish stock market rallies in history. However, in all the articles I read that covered his declaration (and there were many), I couldn’t find one that actually discussed in detail any of the reasons why Mr. Buffet believes that recent actions taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve are sustainable. It seemed that most journalists were quite content with applying the logic of “if Mr. Buffet said it, it must be true.”

Those of you that are SmartKnowledgeU™ Platinum Members know that Mr. Buffet’s declarations of the fallout that likely would have ensued had the U.S. Federal Reserve not bailed out Bear Stearns could have been lifted almost verbatim from my bulletin I had sent to you over a month ago. Recently, Mr. Buffet reiterated exactly what I had told all of my Platinum Members in that month-old bulletin, that if Bear Stearns had gone bankrupt, other Wall Street firms and banks would have failed within a matter of days and the Dow would easily have shed another 1,000 points also in a matter of days. But here’s where I believe Mr. Buffet is wrong. At his annual meeting of his Berkshire Hathaway company, he stated, “ I think the Fed did the right thing in stepping in on Bear Stearns.” So why do I think he’s wrong if I think Bear’s collapse would have created much sharper pain in the U.S. stock markets and the collapse of other financial institutions? Read more …

Add comment May 5th, 2008

How Low Will the Feds Go?

April 30, 2008

In a couple of hours, we’ll soon find out how low the Fed will go in their attempt to inflate their way out of the current subprime/housing market/financial sector mess that we are currently mired in. Last March 18th, the Federal Reserve cleverly manufactured a downturn in the commodities sector off of a 0.75% rate cut to the Feds Fund rate after futures markets had shown their hand by forecasting the probability of a 1.00% or greater cut at 100%. The market then illogically interpreted this less than expected rate cut as a sure sign that the Feds must have fighting inflation as their new priority despite its clear willingness to sacrifice the dollar for the past several months. So what will it do this time around?

Well, there really is no sense in making a prediction because who knows what they will do? I don’t and neither does the futures market. However, what they do will clearly outline their thought processes about the future. Could they have saved the additional 0.25% rate cut that everyone expected in March for this rate cut so they can surprise everyone again with a deeper than expected rate cut this time that will undoubtedly continue to feed this stock market rally? Read more …

Add comment April 30th, 2008

Will U.S. Markets Crash Now or Crash Later?

April 23, 2008

Every time I’ve written about the imminent disaster that awaits U.S. stock markets, and subsequently global markets, the response has been overwhelmingly negative. In 2007, when I warned of steep declines in U.S. markets that were on the way in 2008, I was called everything from unpatriotic, to un-American, to even unholy. When steep declines indeed hit the markets to begin 2008 and gold soared to $850, (fulfilling my September 2007 prediction of $850 gold by January 1, 2008), the name-callers merely disappeared. It’s not that I revel in markets struggling and the still very real possibility of it shedding great value. In fact, I’d be ecstatic if the U.S. markets looked healthy and an imminent rise to a 16,000 Dow was realistic, with an upward surge taking all global markets along for the ride. Good money can be made in great markets or terrible markets so it doesn’t really matter either way. It’s amazing that people think I have an agenda for wanting markets to crash, oddly connecting my market sentiments to arguments about patriotism or religion. It’s just that I feel obliged to report what I see, because so few nuggets of reality trickle through the mainstream information filters and reach larger audiences.

People seem to forget one central and critical point. Most people seem to believe that they have to lose a great deal of money when crises materialize and forget that it is absolutely possible to prosper during crises as well. Thus, because they feel they must suffer during a crisis, the “shoot the messenger of bad news” syndrome commences. That said, I’m still going to state my utter lack of faith in this mini-rally that the U.S. markets are currently experiencing. Due to the huge levels of unaddressed and unsolved risk that still simmers quite potently beneath the surface, with the current “solutions” being implemented today, I honestly can only see two outcomes. Crash now or crash later.

Should an extended rally of the Dow above 13,000 occur, it will serve no purpose other than to create the illusion of wealth, as opposed to the creation of real tangible wealth. The higher U.S. markets rise in today’s environment, the more likely it is that they will fall even harder in the future. Here’s why. Read more …

Add comment April 23rd, 2008

A Closer Look at Recent Upbeat Earnings Announcements - Don’t Believe the Hype

April 17, 2008 -

On April 15th, the U.S. markets rallied, with the DJIA adding more than 250 points (2.08%) and the S&P 500 adding more than 30 points (2.27%). Of course, this brought out the mandatory Wall Street cheerleaders and numerous stories that FINALLY, it appears that the U.S. markets are starting to turn the corner. As could be expected, other major global markets with close ties to the U.S. markets followed suit the following day as they also rallied by about 2% or more. Numerous stories appeared in the media extolling the resiliency of global stock markets and the “upbeat” earnings of U.S. companies that propelled this big one-day rally. Stories soon followed of “super-cycle” bull markets in the U.S. still being intact, and that this one-day rally is the impetus that would propel the U.S. DJIA to 14,000 or possibly even 16,000 points and take the rest of the global stock markets along for the ride. My response? Don’t believe the hype.

If we take a closer look at the headlines that sung the praises of “upbeat” earnings of U.S. companies such as J.P. Morgan, Intel, and Wells Fargo, we’ll discover that the word “upbeat” has been changed in meaning. “Upbeat” in the financial world does not conform to the Webster dictionary definition of “cheerful”, and “optimistic”, but instead has been distorted to mean “bad, but not as bad as the expectations that have been carefully created and molded by CEOs just prior to earnings releases so that earnings can beat expectations”. Even then, this modified definition of upbeat for the expediency of the financial industry may not stand the test of time as most companies still seem to be less than forthcoming about the problems that continue to plague their companies and the overarching economy. Read more …

Add comment April 17th, 2008

Monetary Inflation: How Increased Paper Wealth Can Translate into a Lower Standard of Living

April 17, 2008

Consider this. If you owned a prime piece of real estate in 2001 that was valued at $1.8 million that cost 7,200 ounces of gold to buy it back then (at a price of about $250 an ounce), and if you could now sell that same property and receive $2.6 million for it, even at this inflated price, it would now require less than 2,800 ounces of gold (at about $930 an ounce). So while you may have become richer in the paper currency of U.S. dollars, this increase in paper dollars does not mean much if this increase in paper will enable you to buy less “stuff” today. Certainly, despite the inflated price of this property in paper dollars, you have become much poorer in ounces of gold (real currency). Thus, Central Banks, by inflating money, create the illusion of growing wealth when in fact they are stealing wealth from right underneath our very noses. This is EXACTLY what Alan Greenspan meant when he said “deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth”. By the way, Mr. Greenspan was only bold enough to make such a statement in 1966, decades BEFORE he knew that he would eventually became the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Perhaps, an even easier way to understand the above illustration is as follows. Read more …

1 comment April 17th, 2008

Are Dark Pools Obscuring True Insider Sentiment?

March 25, 2008 -

Dark pools are pools of stocks listed on private or proprietary electronic exchanges that allow a buyer or seller to move large blocks of stocks anonymously without causing the bumps in the price of a particular stock as would happen if an investor were to buy or sell a large position of a stock in a publicly followed exchange. For example, if an individual or an institution wanted to offload a block of 2 million shares in a dark pool, this transaction could be executed without affecting the stock’s trading price that day whereas normally such action by an influential individual or institution would cause the stock’s shareprice to fall. Erik Sirri, Head of the Division of Market Regulation for the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission, stated that “while the increasing use of hidden orders may be troubling,” the SEC plans to do nothing until it is clear that the use of hidden orders in dark pools is damaging the individual retail investor’s ability to buy and sell stocks at a fair price.

In 2007, an estimated 17% to 25% percent of shares listed in the NYSE exchanged hands via dark pools, a significant percentage of the total market. In today’s environment, Sirri’s comments do not bode well for the retail investor. The trading activity of large institutions and influential individuals, and along with it, their real feelings about the U.S. economy, often remain hidden from public view via trades executed within the secretive confines of dark pools. As none of the problems of systemic risk in the financial system have been solved by any of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s actions within the past two weeks, it may very well be that the activity reflected in these dark pools as of late directly contradicts the story being spun to the public. The problems with these dark pools is succinctly summarized by NYSE President Catherine Kinney, who stated that every single share traded in the dark was a share that would not assist the market in determining a fair price for that share. In other words, without the benefit of knowing the extent of buying and selling volume occurring in these dark pools, retail investors would indeed be purchasing and selling the same shares without critical market information, aka, “in the dark”. Read more …

Add comment March 25th, 2008

Diversification, Cash, and AAA-rated Instruments with Exposure to MBS – Three Signs of an Incompetent Advisor

March 9. 2008 -

Diversification: The World’s Worst Investment Strategy

Diversification, cash and AAA-rated instruments with exposure to Mortgage Backed Securities – If you’re deep into all three, these are three definite signs that it is time to let your advisor go. Many “professional” advisors today argue that diversification is a reason to stay fully invested through bear markets. After all, if your advisor had diversified your portfolio into a bunch of housing and financial stocks that are all sitting on 40% to 70% losses right now, he or she would probably tell you that the bottom is certain to be near and that the worst performers of your portfolio this year will be the best performers of your portfolio in the years to come. Well, here’s a news flash. The time to sell out of these stocks was 9 months ago, and if you’re still holding on, the odds are that you will be hurt even more.

Here’s the reality. Diversification is the world’s worst investment strategy and has only served to erode a great deal of net worth and purchasing power for both Americans and Europeans alike. During the past 8 years, many of the major indexes in these regions are negative on an inflation adjusted basis. Thus, for 8 years of buying and holding, if your money was invested in funds pegged to the S&P 500 or the FTSE 100 (and 98% of money managers peg their portfolios to the major indexes of their home country), your net worth has been significantly eroded.

The Warren Buffet Argument is a Sham

Financial advisors often praise the benefits of diversification to advocate a buy and hold strategy so that they can continue to earn fees on depreciating portfolios during bear markets. To convince you that doing this very wrong thing is the right thing to do, they utilize the Warren Buffet argument. They argue, “Look at Warren Buffet. He’s a buy and hold guy and he’s one of the richest men in the world”. In a rational world, such an argument would be called a selective reconstruction of reality. What these same money managers fail to tell you is that Warren Buffet built his wealth by concentrating his exposure, not through diversification. At times, Mr. Buffet has held a mere five positions in his entire Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio. Mr. Buffet did not diversify, because with his level of expertise, there was no need to do so. Mr. Buffet can buy and hold because he is concentrated in positions that will continue to do well whether markets are bear or bull markets.

That’s what anyone that knows what they are doing will do. In bull markets, financial advisors that truly are on top of their game will concentrate to outperform the markets significantly. In this case, since a rising tide lifts all boats, those that choose to diversify can conceal their incompetence as they earn money simply through luck. However, in a bear market, incompetence is much more difficult to hide. Read more …

Add comment March 9th, 2008

Why Investors Will Never Make Any Money in this Bear Market

March 3, 2008 -

Out of Omaha, Nebraska, this story was picked up by the major global news services today:

“OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession even if it hasn’t met the technical definition of one yet. Buffett said in an interview with cable network CNBC the reports he gets from the retail businesses his holding company owns show a significant slowdown in purchases. The chairman and CEO of Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said millions of people have also lost equity in their homes because home prices have dropped.

The technical definition of a recession most economists use is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the nation’s gross domestic product. “I would say, by any commonsense definition, we are in a recession,” Buffett said on CNBC.

Four weeks earlier, I wrote an article on this very blog called, “Is Recession in the U.S. Coming? We’re Already in One”, that received almost zero attention even though, in essence, I said exactly the same thing Warren Buffet said. And thus, this is just another example of people needing someone famous to say something to consider it newsworthy or more importantly, trustworthy. I’ve already given you a plethora of reasons on this blog as to why you can never trust the commercial investment industry, yet when Goldman Sachs declared shorting gold as one of their top 10 trades at the end of last year and gave price targets of $600 to $650 an ounce, thousands and thousands of the sheep herd worldwide undoubtedly sold out of their positions in gold upon this stark pronouncement regarding the doomed future of gold by such a huge investment “authority”

As I only have about 10 free minutes today, this will unfortunately be an extremely abbreviated entry; however, there’s plenty more online at this blog to read about the truth of the underlying economy and premium, information here for our subscribers only about how to make a fortune from this coming global economic crisis.

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Add comment March 3rd, 2008

The Secret to Building Wealth in Volatile Markets

February, 20, 2008

“This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill, the story ends, you awake in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes. Remember: all I’m offering is the truth, nothing more.” - Morpheus, from the film “The Matrix”

Simply put, we are at the tipping point of a major investment crisis today and the opportunity to radically reallocate our portfolios to make a fortune is quickly evaporating. Though I offer investors the opportunity to see how deep the rabbit-hole goes, most investors will shy away, gladly ingest the blue pill and remain firmly grounded in Kansas. Why? The secret of building wealth from this coming crisis is not knowledge itself, but rather an understanding of how your brain processes information that is granted to you. Once we understand that we have been programmed to believe certain investment falsehoods, this will clear our path to truly “see” the current investment crisis that is unfolding.

Most of us have no understanding of the triggers that drive our investment behavior. We are like the people that live in the fantasy computer generated world of the Matrix, constrained by the delusional statistics and reports produced by the commercial investment industry and governments that eventually filter down to us through the media. The great majority of us have come to blindly accept certain investment “soundbites” as truth without having questioned the validity of these truths even once. So today, I encourage you to challenge these beliefs if you have never before done so. Read more …

Add comment February 20th, 2008

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